Since 2012, economic growth has been high, driven by private consumption which accounts for about 70% of the economy. Growth has also been sustained by rising demand for exports.
In 2016 economic growth will decrease to 3% due to less agriculture output and decreasing exports. In 2017 GDP is expected to rebound again, growing 4.5%.
The economy still has room to absorb the oil price slump, but a long-term period of low oil prices would hurt. Economic diversification is on the agenda.
A moderate economic rebound is expected in 2016 and 2017, given that the domestic security situation will not again hurt tourism and business sentiment.
As the oil price decrease has a negative impact on government revenues and lending conditions, many businesses face liquidity issues and payment delays.