Since 2012, economic growth has been high, driven by private consumption which accounts for about 70% of the economy. Growth has also been sustained by rising demand for exports.
A deterioration of trade relations with China could negatively affect the ICT component supply side and confront US end-consumers with higher sales prices.
Despite increasing challenges a recovery of the exchange rate and a rather stable economic outlook for 2018 should help the ICT industry in the short-term.
Payment experience over the past two years has been good in the ICT sector and the level of insolvencies is low, with no major change expected in 2018.
Due to limited organic growth opportunities and the on-going economic uncertainty, market players strive to expand through acquisitions and specialisation.
Payment behaviour in the ICT sector has been good over the past two years, and the number of payment delays and insolvencies is expected to remain low.
In 2018, economic growth is expected to remain above 2%, sustained by domestic and international demand. The momentum is forecast to slow down in 2019.
Economic expansion remains broad-based, driven by private consumption and business investments, while export growth is sustained by the eurozone demand.
In 2018 and 2019 economic growth is expected to moderate somewhat but to remain robust, with private consumption and investment remaining the key drivers.
A potential downside risk would be another deterioration in house prices, given high levels of mortgage debt and banks’ exposure to the housing market.
A potential downside risk to the economic performance could be the high household debt in case of sharp house price decreases and interest rate increases.
British business insolvencies are expected to rise again in 2018, mainly affecting businesses active in the construction, retail and hospitality sectors.
The best way for smaller retailers to survive is to join a large purchasing association and to compete with e-commerce by providing outstanding service.
The business environment is highly competitive among the different distribution networks, reinforced by the increasing market share of online retailers.
The growing insecurity over US trade policy pushes the European Union and trading partners to speed up the completion of free trade agreement negotiations
De nieuwste uitgave van de (Engelstalige) Economische Update, met daarin een beeld van de huidige wereldwijde economische omgeving en de vooruitzichten door Atradius Economic Research.
In 2016 economic growth will decrease to 3% due to less agriculture output and decreasing exports. In 2017 GDP is expected to rebound again, growing 4.5%.
The economy still has room to absorb the oil price slump, but a long-term period of low oil prices would hurt. Economic diversification is on the agenda.
A moderate economic rebound is expected in 2016 and 2017, given that the domestic security situation will not again hurt tourism and business sentiment.
As the oil price decrease has a negative impact on government revenues and lending conditions, many businesses face liquidity issues and payment delays.
Atradius picks the top 8 markets for business opportunities in 2016. These emerging markets have been showing strong performances over the past three years and are expected to improve further in 2016.