Since 2012, economic growth has been high, driven by private consumption which accounts for about 70% of the economy. Growth has also been sustained by rising demand for exports.
German chemicals/pharmaceuticals businesses have a strong market position, and many are highly specialised. The industry has a well-deserved reputation for innovation and a competitive edge.
The chemicals sector ́s export share (mainly in Europe) amounts to more than two thirds of overall sales. French businesses are in strong competition with international players, especially the US.
The UAE’s ICT market is currently characterised by high competition, single-digit margins, low entry barriers and stagnating growth in sub-segments like PCs and desktops.
The German ICT sector generally has good growth prospects, but low margins, sharp price erosion and steep competition lead to an on-going trend of consolidation.
In the US, revenues for new, emerging product categories are expected to double in 2015 with strong demand for 3D printers, 4K Ultra HD TVs, connected home products, unmanned systems and wearables.
The main strengths of the Polish IT sector are the stable demand, a strong export performance and financial transparency, as the largest IT distributors are listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
Global economic growth remains tepid and weaker than expected. A ‘new normal’ of structurally lower growth rates in both advanced and emerging markets has become manifest.
Despite the significant amount of time given B2B customers to pay their invoices, a sizeable proportion of the total value of domestic B2B receivables in Turkey (55.2%) was overdue.
In Hungary, late payment of invoices is reflected in the DSO figure, averaging 80 days. This is significantly above the 59 day average for Eastern Europe.
2015 is expected to be a difficult year for Eastern Europe. This is forecast to place a long-term strain on corporate payment behaviour in many countries in the region.
An agreement curtailing Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions could reopen the Iranian economy to Western exporters, creating opportunities but also risks.
33% of survey respondents in Sweden (compared to 20% in Western Europe) consider a fall in demand for their products and services as one of the greatest challenges to business profitability in 2015.
When asked to indicate the greatest challenge to business profitability in 2015 two in five Greek respondents indicated maintaining adequate cash flow and collection of outstanding invoices.
B2B payment defaults in Western Europe remain significant. This is expected to slow the still weak economic recovery, particularly of the Eurozone, and keep insolvency rates well above 2007 levels.
Respondents in Denmark are the most inclined to use trade credit of all the countries surveyed in Western Europe. 70.5% of the total value of their domestic B2B sales is transacted on credit terms.
31% of survey respondents in Switzerland, compared to 24% in Western Europe overall, consider cost containment to be one of the greatest challenges to business profitability in 2015.
The 58 day average DSO in Spain appears to be heavily impacted by high delinquency rates. These average 10% of the value of B2B receivables, mainly on the domestic market.
The payment default environment observed in Great Britain suggests businesses are making a strong effort to improve business profitability by managing their receivables portfolios more efficiently.
Consistent with Western Europe overall, one in four survey respondents in Belgium consider cost containment to be one of the biggest challenges to business profitability in 2015.
The strong focus on protection of exports from the risk of payment default by customers comes as no surprise for the Netherlands, whose GDP growth is heavily dependent on international trade.
24% of survey respondents in Austria were concerned about maintaining sufficient cash flow levels. They consider this as one of the greatest challenges to business profitability in 2015.
28% of the respondents in Ireland, compared to 18% in Western Europe, reported that maintaining adequate cash flow is one of the biggest challenges they will be facing in 2015.
Nearly 73% of survey respondents in Italy reported that late payment from domestic B2B customers is mainly attributable to insufficient availability of funds.
Survey respondents in Germany show a risk averse approach to trade credit which may be explained by a notable increase in the level of overdue domestic and foreign payment over the past two years.
We forecast the oil price will start rising in the fourth quarter of 2015 to USD 75 on average in 2016. Discover the impact on sectors and countries across the globe.
The Chinese retail market remains highly fragmented due to the large population and differences in consumer behaviour and purchasing power across the country.
The US economy is expected to grow 3.1 % in 2015, while unemployment is expected to drop to 5.5 %. Together with improving consumer sentiment, those indicators support higher top-line sales growth.
In the UK, consumer confidence and discretionary income have shown significant improvement over the past 12 months. The overall trend in consumer durables retail performance has been an improving one.
The forecast for Spain ́s economy seems to sustain further consumer durables sales in 2015. However, for some segments growth could be lower, given high purchase levels already seen in 2014.
German consumer durables retail benefits from the country ́s robust economic performance, with household consumption expected to grow 2 % in 2015 after 1.2 % registered in 2014.
Peru’s economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2015 spurred by lower interest rates, two mega mining projects, strong demand and public investment in infrastructure projects.
In 2015, Colombia’s economic performance is expected to slow down somewhat (to 3.8%) due to lower commodity prices, while robust domestic demand should sustain growth.
Argentina’s economy contracted 1.6% in 2014, and this negative trend is expected to continue in 2015, as exchange and price controls are forcing producers to scale back their activities.
Italian GDP is expected to grow after three years of contraction. Domestic demand is forecast to stabilise as investments and household consumption are expected to accelerate.
